Latest updates: Maria Caulfield, health minister, urges people to wait until deal is finalised as reports grow over reservations
Good morning. Rishi Sunak is still trying to close a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol. A few days ago reporters were briefed that he would be unveiling it at cabinet today, but there has been a hold-up because he is still trying to secure the support of Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group and the DUP. The story is stuck in a “not much happening in public” phase.
But that does mean there is no crisis or tension. This is the hardest political problem Sunak has had to face as PM and three outcomes are possible. 1) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal rejected by the DUP, triggering a large revolt by Tory Brexiters. 2) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal, but the DUP is supportive, or at least not too critical, and any Tory revolt is relatively limited. 3) Sunak abandons trying to get a deal for now, and carries on with a status quo. Option 2) would be a small triumph; Sunak would have achieved something that eluded Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. But option 1) would be a disaster for his leadership, and option 3) would amount to a failure too.
Another minister told The Times that ministers would quit if the government tried to force through a deal that undermined Northern Ireland’s sovereignty by leaving the province beholden to existing and future EU single market rules.
“The naivety is astonishing,” the minister said. “The strategy hasn’t worked. People won’t allow something that doesn’t ensure sovereignty. Ministers will resign. I couldn’t look myself in the eye and vote through something I thought would undermine sovereignty in Northern Ireland.”